Category Naphtha

Question 1: what is the price of MOPJ?

Mopj refers to the daily CFR Japan Naphtha CIF settlement price (i.e. MOPJ) commonly published in trade. It refers to the average value of the evaluated price in the two time periods of 45-60 days forward and 60-75 days forward, that is, the evaluated value of CFR Japan Naphtha loaded within 45-75 days forward. For example, the time periods for evaluating CFR Japan Naphtha on April 1 are: the second half of May, the first half of June and the second half of June. The CIF Japan price of Naphtha loaded in the first half of June, the second half of June and the first half of July will be evaluated on April 16.

The original data of Sinopec Naphtha Mutual Supply Price reference is Platts’ C + F, and C (cost) + F (freight) is the unit price including freight, which is what we usually call C & F / CFR.

Question 2: can you see the price of MOPJ on your website?

The price of C + F in Japan can be seen in the price center of the marketing department of Junyuan Petroleum Group. The mutual supply price of Sinopec Naphtha calculated according to this original data is basically the same as the official mutual supply price of Sinopec Naphtha, with an error of 1-3 yuan / ton, which is caused by rounding.

Question 3: is Sinopec’s Naphtha Mutual Supply Price calculated according to MOPJ?

Sinopec Naphtha Mutual Supply Price is calculated by FOB Singapore, C + F Japan, freight discount and poor quality. The price taking cycle is from the 26th of last month to the 25th of this month.

Question 4: does Sinopec Naphtha Mutual Supply Price include tax? Enter the circulation market?

Sinopec Naphtha Mutual Supply Price is internal supply price, including 17% value-added tax, but excluding consumption tax. This price is not circulated in the market. On the one hand, it is used for the resource allocation and settlement of different refineries under Sinopec, and on the other hand, it is used for the cost pricing reference of downstream ethylene and aromatics.

In August, domestic Naphtha fluctuated at a high level. After the middle and late ten days, influenced by the expected tension of local refining resources, it rose continuously. At the end of the month, the market speculation atmosphere became stronger. Stimulated by various favorable factors, Naphtha prices rose rapidly. According to the data monitoring of Junyuan Petroleum Group, the average market price of straight run Naphtha is 7,981 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 0.82%, a year-on-year ratio of + 22.22%, and the average market price of hydrogenated naphtha is 8123 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 1.20%, a year-on-year ratio of + 18.74%.

Naphtha analysts of Junyuan Petroleum Group believe that the current high cost support, but the weak crude oil guidance and the continued weakness of the terminal ethylene cracking direction are the main bad news to suppress the upward trend of the market. However, supported by the expectation of “Gold September, Silver October”, the product oil has risen sharply and exceeded the high level continuously. The downstream ethylene cracking is difficult to make profits, and the profits in the reforming direction show a downward trend compared with the previous period. The on-site trading is mainly focused on the gap in the local refining and reforming. From the fundamental point of view, affected by the policy, the operating rate of Shandong Geological refining fell in the middle and late August, and the market supply resources tightened. According to Longzhong data monitoring, in August 2022, the average capacity utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation of Shandong independent refineries was 62.86%, a month on month decrease of 5.70 percentage points.

From the perspective of downstream profits, the ethylene cracking unit continued to suffer serious losses. According to  data monitoring of Junyuan Petroleum Group, in August, the theoretical profit of ethylene cracking unit was – 98.39 US dollars / ton, and the theoretical profit of reformer was 610.64 yuan / ton.

Naphtha analysts of Junyuan Petroleum Group believe that in September, the international crude oil was at a high level and the cost support was strong. Basically, the supply side is relatively tight, and the demand continues to be weak. It is expected that the naphtha market will fluctuate and rise in September, running at a high level. It is suggested to pay attention to policy news and the impact of the epidemic on the gasoline market.