Category Crude Oil

Traders weighed the release potential of U.S. strategic oil reserves and the prospect of global oil production, and European and American crude oil futures fluctuated slightly. On Tuesday (November 16), the settlement price of December 2021 West Texas light oil futures on the New York Mercantile futures exchange was $80.76 a barrel, down $0.12 or 0.1% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $80.03-81.81; The January 2022 futures settlement price of Brent crude oil on the London Intercontinental Exchange was US $82.43 per barrel, up US $0.38 or 0.5% over the previous trading day, with a trading range of US $81.52-83.14.

Reuters reported on Tuesday that oil prices were supported after the remarks of Steny Hoyer, the majority leader of the US House of Representatives, reduced the expectation that the United States would use its strategic oil reserves to help reduce gasoline prices. Hoyer said in an interview that he did not agree with the recent appeal of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to use the strategic oil reserve to reduce gasoline prices. In addition, Stephen Nalley, acting chief executive of the U.S. energy information administration, said at a Senate committee hearing on domestic and international energy price trends that the impact of the release of strategic oil reserves would be “short-lived”. The International Energy Agency said that it is expected that the increase in crude oil production will help alleviate the tight global supply and put some pressure on oil prices.
On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency released the November monthly report on the oil market. According to the report, with the rise of international oil prices and the increase of U.S. oil production, the global average daily oil supply will increase by 1.5 million barrels in November and December, of which the average daily oil supply of the United States will increase by 400000 barrels. According to OPEC and its production reduction alliance, the average daily oil supply of Saudi Arabia and Russia will increase by 330000 barrels. U.S. production has increased since Hurricane IDA. The total U.S. crude oil supply in October increased by 1.4 million barrels per day compared with the previous month. With the completion of seasonal overhaul, the daily average crude oil processing capacity of global refineries will increase by nearly 3 million barrels from October to December. Despite the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the refinery profit margin rose in October driven by the extremely tight supply of refined oil. It is expected that the global average daily crude oil processing volume will remain stable in the first half of 2022 and increase again in the third quarter of 2022. In its report, the International Energy Agency said, “from all aspects, the global oil market is still tight, but the rebound in oil prices may soon be alleviated because of the increasing oil supply. Despite the operators’ commitment to capital discipline, the current oil price is still a strong driving force for increasing production.”
In September, the total volume of OECD commercial inventories decreased by 51 million barrels, of which crude oil and medium distillate stocks accounted for most of the decline in total oil inventories. In terms of region, Europe experienced the largest decline. The total OECD commercial inventory was 2.762 billion barrels, 250 million barrels lower than the five-year average, the lowest level since the beginning of 2015. 10 preliminary data showed a slight increase in inventory. The International Energy Agency reported that: “For a long time, aviation fuel consumption has been the weak link of demand recovery, but now it is finally expected to recover. However, concerns about the destruction of demand caused by the epidemic are still increasing. As Europe once again becomes the center of the epidemic, some governments are prompted to consider re enforcing the blockade. The agency said that the increase of new cases in Europe, the weakening of industrial activity and the rise of oil prices may weaken demand Demand. OPEC ignores the calls of oil consuming countries to increase production. OPEC Secretary General Balkin said on Tuesday that there is expected to be an oversupply of oil as early as December, and the market will remain oversupplied next year. He said: “oversupply may begin in December. These signals show that we must be very, very careful.” However, Jeremy weir, CEO of Trafigura, one of the world’s largest oil traders, said that with the demand returning to the pre epidemic level, the global oil market is still very tense. Weir pointed out that the oil price does not rise artificially because of the ineffective production increase of OPEC and its production reduction allies, but is driven by the tension of actual demand.
The market is waiting for U.S. oil inventory data, and analysts have different estimates of changes in U.S. crude oil inventory. Analysts’ average estimates show that U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.5 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 100000 barrels and distillate oil inventory decreased by 1.3 million barrels in the week ended November 12. Accept the Wall Street Journal On average, the 10 analysts surveyed estimated that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 500000 barrels as of the week of November 12, of which 7 analysts estimated an increase and 3 analysts estimated a decrease, with an estimated value between a decrease of 3.5 million barrels and an increase of 2.7 million barrels. The Wall Street Journal On average, the 11 analysts surveyed estimated that last week, the U.S. gasoline inventory decreased by 600000 barrels, ranging from a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 1.2 million barrels; the distillate oil inventory including diesel and heating oil decreased by 1.3 million barrels, ranging from a decrease of 3.8 million barrels to an increase of 500000 barrels; the operating rate of U.S. refineries is expected to be 87.4%, up 0.7%. However, after the closing of European and American crude oil futures, According to the data of the American Petroleum Institute, as of the week of November 12, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 413.8 million barrels, an increase of 700000 barrels over the previous week, the gasoline inventory decreased by 2.8 million barrels, and the distillate oil inventory increased by 100000 barrels.
The U.S. energy information administration will release last week’s U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventory, demand, import and export data at 10:30 a.m. local time, i.e. 11:30 p.m. Beijing time on Wednesday.

[today’s crude oil]: European and American countries strictly control the epidemic once again, and international oil prices fall back
European countries once again strictly control the epidemic and re restrict travel may reduce the demand for oil and the international oil price will fall back. However, U.S. crude oil inventories fell, and international oil prices were off their intraday lows. On Thursday (October 15), the settlement price of West Texas light oil in November 2020 on the New York Mercantile futures exchange was $40.96, down $0.08, or 0.2%, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 39.22-41.29; the settlement price of December 2020 futures of Brent crude oil in London intercontinental exchange was $43.16 per barrel, down $0.16, or 0.4%, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 42.13-43 45 dollars.
Some European countries are resuming curfews and closures in response to a surge in the number of new crown cases, and Britain announced that stricter restrictions would be imposed in London on Friday. French President Marcon has announced curfews in nine French cities, including Paris, to curb the spread of the new crown. New coronal infections have surged in the United States, and states have tightened social restrictions. Unemployment continued to rise in the United States, which also brought a negative atmosphere to the oil market. The number of jobless benefits rose to a seven week high of 898000 in the week ending October 10, up 53000 from the previous week, according to data from the U.S. Department of labor on October 15. Vitol, Trafigura and Cornwall, the world’s largest oil traders, all said the recovery in oil demand would be slow due to the rebound in the outbreak.
Robert yawger, head of Mizuho energy futures, said the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s inventory report put a hold on the decline in oil prices, otherwise a crash could occur earlier on Thursday.
Gasoline demand in the United States decreased while distillate demand increased. According to the data of the energy information administration of the United States, as of October 9, 2020, the total demand for refined oil in the United States averaged 18.427 million barrels per day, 12.6% lower than that in the same period last year; the average daily demand for motor gasoline was 8.629 million barrels, 7.5% lower than that of the same period last year; and the average demand for distillate oil was 3.914 million barrels per day, It was 3.7% lower than the same period last year, and the daily average demand of kerosene aviation fuel was 41.8% lower than that of the same period last year. In a single week’s demand, the average daily oil demand in the United States was 19.475 million barrels, 1.13 million barrels higher than that of the previous week; the daily demand of gasoline in the United States was 8.576 million barrels, which was 320000 barrels lower than that of the previous week; the average daily demand of distillate oil was 4.175 million barrels, 307000 barrels higher than the average of the previous week.
Hurricane Delta has led to a sharp drop in oil and gas production in the Gulf region of the United States, a decrease in crude oil imports, and a decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, as well as a decrease in U.S. gasoline and distillate stocks over the same period. U.S. crude oil inventory was 48910.9 million barrels in the week ending October 9, down 3.82 million barrels from the previous week; total U.S. gasoline inventory was 225.21 million barrels, down 1.63 million barrels from the previous week; and distillate oil inventory was 164.55.1 million barrels, down 7.24 million barrels from the previous week. Crude oil inventory was 12.5% higher than that of the same period last year, 11% higher than that of the same period of the past five years, gasoline inventory was 0.5% lower than that of the same period of last year, 1% lower than that of the same period of the past five years, and the stock of distillate oil was 33.2% higher than that of the same period of last five years and 19% higher than that of the same period of the past five years. Total commercial oil inventories in the United States fell by 16.8 million barrels. The average processing volume of American refineries was 13.577 million barrels per day, 277000 barrels less than the previous week; the operating rate of refineries was 75.1%, 2.0 percentage points lower than that of the previous week. Last week, US crude oil imports averaged 5.286 million barrels a day, a decrease of 447000 barrels compared with the previous week. The average daily import of refined oil was 203.6 barrels, down 121000 barrels from the previous week. In the past week, US strategic oil reserves fell by 1.16 million barrels to 64084.7 million barrels.
The decline of U.S. crude oil inventory was concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico region. As of October 9, crude oil inventory in the Gulf region of the United States was 256.33 million barrels, down 5.12 million barrels from the previous week; the highly concerned crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 59.442 million barrels, an increase of 2.906 million barrels.
US crude oil exports fell to the lowest level in 14 months. According to the data, for the week ending October 2, the average daily crude oil export volume of the United States was 2135000 barrels, 524000 barrels less than that of the previous week, and 1113000 barrels lower than that of the same period last year. In the past four weeks, the average daily export volume of US crude oil was 2.832 million barrels, down 9.4% from the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, the average daily export of US crude oil is 3.132 million barrels, an increase of 8.4% over the same period last year. In the past week, US crude oil net imports averaged 3.151 million barrels a day, an increase of 77000 barrels over the previous week. The total net oil exports of the United States averaged 3.354 million barrels a day, an increase of 271000 barrels over the previous week. The total net imports of crude oil and refined oil in the United States averaged 204000 barrels a day, an increase of 193000 barrels over the previous week.
For the week ending October 9, the average daily output of US crude oil was 10.5 million barrels, a decrease of 500000 barrels compared with the average output of the previous Sunday and a decrease of 2.1 million barrels over the same period of last year; for the four weeks ending October 10, the average daily output of US crude oil was 10.725 million barrels, 14.4% lower than that of the same period last year.
According to the U.S. safety and environmental enforcement agency, as of noon on October 15, about 24% of the offshore oil and gas fields in the U.S. Gulf region had lost production by 440000 barrels a day. S & P’s analysts estimate that it may take nearly two weeks for the region to fully resume production.