[today’s crude oil]: European and American countries strictly control the epidemic once again, and international oil prices fall back
European countries once again strictly control the epidemic and re restrict travel may reduce the demand for oil and the international oil price will fall back. However, U.S. crude oil inventories fell, and international oil prices were off their intraday lows. On Thursday (October 15), the settlement price of West Texas light oil in November 2020 on the New York Mercantile futures exchange was $40.96, down $0.08, or 0.2%, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 39.22-41.29; the settlement price of December 2020 futures of Brent crude oil in London intercontinental exchange was $43.16 per barrel, down $0.16, or 0.4%, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 42.13-43 45 dollars.
Some European countries are resuming curfews and closures in response to a surge in the number of new crown cases, and Britain announced that stricter restrictions would be imposed in London on Friday. French President Marcon has announced curfews in nine French cities, including Paris, to curb the spread of the new crown. New coronal infections have surged in the United States, and states have tightened social restrictions. Unemployment continued to rise in the United States, which also brought a negative atmosphere to the oil market. The number of jobless benefits rose to a seven week high of 898000 in the week ending October 10, up 53000 from the previous week, according to data from the U.S. Department of labor on October 15. Vitol, Trafigura and Cornwall, the world’s largest oil traders, all said the recovery in oil demand would be slow due to the rebound in the outbreak.
Robert yawger, head of Mizuho energy futures, said the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s inventory report put a hold on the decline in oil prices, otherwise a crash could occur earlier on Thursday.
Gasoline demand in the United States decreased while distillate demand increased. According to the data of the energy information administration of the United States, as of October 9, 2020, the total demand for refined oil in the United States averaged 18.427 million barrels per day, 12.6% lower than that in the same period last year; the average daily demand for motor gasoline was 8.629 million barrels, 7.5% lower than that of the same period last year; and the average demand for distillate oil was 3.914 million barrels per day, It was 3.7% lower than the same period last year, and the daily average demand of kerosene aviation fuel was 41.8% lower than that of the same period last year. In a single week’s demand, the average daily oil demand in the United States was 19.475 million barrels, 1.13 million barrels higher than that of the previous week; the daily demand of gasoline in the United States was 8.576 million barrels, which was 320000 barrels lower than that of the previous week; the average daily demand of distillate oil was 4.175 million barrels, 307000 barrels higher than the average of the previous week.
Hurricane Delta has led to a sharp drop in oil and gas production in the Gulf region of the United States, a decrease in crude oil imports, and a decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, as well as a decrease in U.S. gasoline and distillate stocks over the same period. U.S. crude oil inventory was 48910.9 million barrels in the week ending October 9, down 3.82 million barrels from the previous week; total U.S. gasoline inventory was 225.21 million barrels, down 1.63 million barrels from the previous week; and distillate oil inventory was 164.55.1 million barrels, down 7.24 million barrels from the previous week. Crude oil inventory was 12.5% higher than that of the same period last year, 11% higher than that of the same period of the past five years, gasoline inventory was 0.5% lower than that of the same period of last year, 1% lower than that of the same period of the past five years, and the stock of distillate oil was 33.2% higher than that of the same period of last five years and 19% higher than that of the same period of the past five years. Total commercial oil inventories in the United States fell by 16.8 million barrels. The average processing volume of American refineries was 13.577 million barrels per day, 277000 barrels less than the previous week; the operating rate of refineries was 75.1%, 2.0 percentage points lower than that of the previous week. Last week, US crude oil imports averaged 5.286 million barrels a day, a decrease of 447000 barrels compared with the previous week. The average daily import of refined oil was 203.6 barrels, down 121000 barrels from the previous week. In the past week, US strategic oil reserves fell by 1.16 million barrels to 64084.7 million barrels.
The decline of U.S. crude oil inventory was concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico region. As of October 9, crude oil inventory in the Gulf region of the United States was 256.33 million barrels, down 5.12 million barrels from the previous week; the highly concerned crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 59.442 million barrels, an increase of 2.906 million barrels.
US crude oil exports fell to the lowest level in 14 months. According to the data, for the week ending October 2, the average daily crude oil export volume of the United States was 2135000 barrels, 524000 barrels less than that of the previous week, and 1113000 barrels lower than that of the same period last year. In the past four weeks, the average daily export volume of US crude oil was 2.832 million barrels, down 9.4% from the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, the average daily export of US crude oil is 3.132 million barrels, an increase of 8.4% over the same period last year. In the past week, US crude oil net imports averaged 3.151 million barrels a day, an increase of 77000 barrels over the previous week. The total net oil exports of the United States averaged 3.354 million barrels a day, an increase of 271000 barrels over the previous week. The total net imports of crude oil and refined oil in the United States averaged 204000 barrels a day, an increase of 193000 barrels over the previous week.
For the week ending October 9, the average daily output of US crude oil was 10.5 million barrels, a decrease of 500000 barrels compared with the average output of the previous Sunday and a decrease of 2.1 million barrels over the same period of last year; for the four weeks ending October 10, the average daily output of US crude oil was 10.725 million barrels, 14.4% lower than that of the same period last year.
According to the U.S. safety and environmental enforcement agency, as of noon on October 15, about 24% of the offshore oil and gas fields in the U.S. Gulf region had lost production by 440000 barrels a day. S & P’s analysts estimate that it may take nearly two weeks for the region to fully resume production.