Traders weighed the release potential of U.S. strategic oil reserves and the prospect of global oil production, and European and American crude oil futures fluctuated slightly. On Tuesday (November 16), the settlement price of December 2021 West Texas light oil futures on the New York Mercantile futures exchange was $80.76 a barrel, down $0.12 or 0.1% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $80.03-81.81; The January 2022 futures settlement price of Brent crude oil on the London Intercontinental Exchange was US $82.43 per barrel, up US $0.38 or 0.5% over the previous trading day, with a trading range of US $81.52-83.14.
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Reuters reported on Tuesday that oil prices were supported after the remarks of Steny Hoyer, the majority leader of the US House of Representatives, reduced the expectation that the United States would use its strategic oil reserves to help reduce gasoline prices. Hoyer said in an interview that he did not agree with the recent appeal of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to use the strategic oil reserve to reduce gasoline prices. In addition, Stephen Nalley, acting chief executive of the U.S. energy information administration, said at a Senate committee hearing on domestic and international energy price trends that the impact of the release of strategic oil reserves would be “short-lived”. The International Energy Agency said that it is expected that the increase in crude oil production will help alleviate the tight global supply and put some pressure on oil prices.
On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency released the November monthly report on the oil market. According to the report, with the rise of international oil prices and the increase of U.S. oil production, the global average daily oil supply will increase by 1.5 million barrels in November and December, of which the average daily oil supply of the United States will increase by 400000 barrels. According to OPEC and its production reduction alliance, the average daily oil supply of Saudi Arabia and Russia will increase by 330000 barrels. U.S. production has increased since Hurricane IDA. The total U.S. crude oil supply in October increased by 1.4 million barrels per day compared with the previous month. With the completion of seasonal overhaul, the daily average crude oil processing capacity of global refineries will increase by nearly 3 million barrels from October to December. Despite the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the refinery profit margin rose in October driven by the extremely tight supply of refined oil. It is expected that the global average daily crude oil processing volume will remain stable in the first half of 2022 and increase again in the third quarter of 2022. In its report, the International Energy Agency said, “from all aspects, the global oil market is still tight, but the rebound in oil prices may soon be alleviated because of the increasing oil supply. Despite the operators’ commitment to capital discipline, the current oil price is still a strong driving force for increasing production.”
In September, the total volume of OECD commercial inventories decreased by 51 million barrels, of which crude oil and medium distillate stocks accounted for most of the decline in total oil inventories. In terms of region, Europe experienced the largest decline. The total OECD commercial inventory was 2.762 billion barrels, 250 million barrels lower than the five-year average, the lowest level since the beginning of 2015. 10 preliminary data showed a slight increase in inventory. The International Energy Agency reported that: “For a long time, aviation fuel consumption has been the weak link of demand recovery, but now it is finally expected to recover. However, concerns about the destruction of demand caused by the epidemic are still increasing. As Europe once again becomes the center of the epidemic, some governments are prompted to consider re enforcing the blockade. The agency said that the increase of new cases in Europe, the weakening of industrial activity and the rise of oil prices may weaken demand Demand. OPEC ignores the calls of oil consuming countries to increase production. OPEC Secretary General Balkin said on Tuesday that there is expected to be an oversupply of oil as early as December, and the market will remain oversupplied next year. He said: “oversupply may begin in December. These signals show that we must be very, very careful.” However, Jeremy weir, CEO of Trafigura, one of the world’s largest oil traders, said that with the demand returning to the pre epidemic level, the global oil market is still very tense. Weir pointed out that the oil price does not rise artificially because of the ineffective production increase of OPEC and its production reduction allies, but is driven by the tension of actual demand.
The market is waiting for U.S. oil inventory data, and analysts have different estimates of changes in U.S. crude oil inventory. Analysts’ average estimates show that U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.5 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 100000 barrels and distillate oil inventory decreased by 1.3 million barrels in the week ended November 12. Accept the Wall Street Journal On average, the 10 analysts surveyed estimated that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 500000 barrels as of the week of November 12, of which 7 analysts estimated an increase and 3 analysts estimated a decrease, with an estimated value between a decrease of 3.5 million barrels and an increase of 2.7 million barrels. The Wall Street Journal On average, the 11 analysts surveyed estimated that last week, the U.S. gasoline inventory decreased by 600000 barrels, ranging from a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 1.2 million barrels; the distillate oil inventory including diesel and heating oil decreased by 1.3 million barrels, ranging from a decrease of 3.8 million barrels to an increase of 500000 barrels; the operating rate of U.S. refineries is expected to be 87.4%, up 0.7%. However, after the closing of European and American crude oil futures, According to the data of the American Petroleum Institute, as of the week of November 12, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 413.8 million barrels, an increase of 700000 barrels over the previous week, the gasoline inventory decreased by 2.8 million barrels, and the distillate oil inventory increased by 100000 barrels.
The U.S. energy information administration will release last week’s U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventory, demand, import and export data at 10:30 a.m. local time, i.e. 11:30 p.m. Beijing time on Wednesday.