Analysts generally estimated that US crude oil inventories fell for two consecutive weeks, investors made up for short positions, and international oil prices closed moderately higher. However, Libya’s crude oil production will increase, concerns about uncertain demand remain, and the rise in international oil prices is limited. However, after the European and American crude oil futures closed, American Petroleum Institute data showed that US crude oil inventories increased last week, and international oil prices fell again in the after hours electronic trading system. On Tuesday (September 22), the settlement price of West Texas light oil in October 2020 on the New York Mercantile futures exchange was $39.6, up $0.29, or 0.7%, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 39-40.02; the settlement price of Brent crude oil in November 2020 on the London intercontinental exchange was $41.72 per barrel, up $0.28, or 0.7%, with a trading range of 41.21-42.2 Yuan.
On Tuesday, West Texas light oil futures on the New York Mercantile Futures Exchange (NYMEX) closed in October 2020. The settlement price of November futures, the main active contract, was $39.80 a barrel, up $0.26 or 0.7% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 39.19-40.27.
The market is waiting for us oil inventory data. Most analysts estimate that U.S. crude oil inventories will continue to decline, but analysts are divided on their estimates of changes in U.S. crude oil inventories last week. On average, 10 analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal estimated that U.S. crude oil inventories would decrease by 1.4 million barrels in the week ending September 18. Seven of the 10 analysts estimated that U.S. crude oil inventories would decrease and 3 million barrels would increase. On average, 10 analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal estimated that U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 600000 barrels last week, ranging from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 2 million barrels; a 1 million barrels increase in distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, between a decrease of 2.2 million barrels and an increase of 4.1 million barrels; and the operating rate of US refineries is expected to be 76.4%, up 0.6%. Analysts surveyed by standard & Poor’s group estimated that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4 million barrels last week, US gasoline inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels, and distillate oil stocks, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 1.2 million barrels. U.S. crude oil inventories are likely to fall by 2.3 million barrels last week, gasoline inventories may fall by 600000 barrels, distillate oil inventories may increase by 1 million barrels and refinery operating rate may increase by 0.4%, according to a Reuters survey.
After the close of the European and American crude oil futures, the data released by American Petroleum Institute showed that, as of September 18, the US crude oil inventory was 495.2 million barrels, increased by 691000 barrels compared with the previous week, gasoline inventory decreased by 7.735 million barrels, distillate oil inventory decreased by 2.104 million barrels, and crude oil inventory in Cushing area of Oklahoma, which attracted much attention from the market, increased by 298 thousand barrels, and the daily import volume of American crude oil was increased in the same period 88000 barrels less.
The U.S. energy information administration will release weekly oil inventory and demand data at 10:30 a.m. EST on Wednesday, or 10:30 p.m. Beijing time on Wednesday.
Concerns about uncertain demand caused by public health events are an important factor in the fall in oil prices this year, and some European countries are once again taking measures to limit travel to curb the growth of new cases. “Measures to curb the growth of new cases have had a direct and significant impact on oil demand,” said Barbara Lambrecht, an analyst at Commerzbank
Lambrecht believes supply concerns remain and Libya is expected to produce 300000 barrels a day, nearly twice as much as current production. “The recovery in Libya’s crude oil exports will force OPEC and its reduced production allies to offset the increase in Libya’s production by cutting production elsewhere,” Lambrecht said. After all, OPEC’s goal of rebalancing the market and its production reduction allies may be affected by concerns about cooling oil demand. So far, the oil market seems to believe that the allies are willing and able to take action to balance the market. “
Libya’s state oil company said Tuesday that Libya’s tankers will begin shipping crude oil within 72 hours, with crude oil production expected to reach about 260000 barrels a day next week, media sources said.
The market continues to focus on the impact of the Gulf storm on oil production. About 7.12% of U.S. offshore oil production in the Gulf has been shut down, according to the U.S. Department of the interior’s safety and environmental enforcement agency. Tropical storm beta made landfall along the Texas coast late Monday, after oil and gas production in the U.S. Gulf region had been affected by hurricanes Laura and Sally.
The commodity research department of barkle, an investment bank, raised its oil price forecast for 2020. It is estimated that the average price of Brent crude oil and WTI in 2020 will be $43 and $39 per barrel, respectively, up $2 from the previous forecast. It is estimated that the average price of Brent crude oil and WTI in 2021 will be US $53 and US $50 per barrel respectively. Balkley said in the report that we continue to maintain a positive evaluation of oil price forecast for next year, and there is limited space for demand decline because countries’ ability to respond to the threat of the epidemic situation has been strengthened, and OPEC and its allies in production reduction have continued to limit production.