In 2022, the price changes of pentane, hexane and heptane during the new year’s Day holiday and the prospect of the trend after the holiday. On the eve of the New Year’s Day holiday, domestic pentane and hexane pushed up all the way, with an increase of nearly 100 yuan per ton. According to the real-time exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar today, it is about US $16 / ton. The price of n-Heptane products fell, with a decrease of up to 500 yuan per ton, about US $78/MT. Supply tightening is the main boost. On the one hand, Junyuan Petroleum Group, a leading manufacturer of Pentane, Hexane and Heptane, took the lead in increasing the quotation while controlling the volume of shipments; On the other hand, the replenishment of domestic trade ships is limited, and the impact on the delayed arrival of imported ships is small. The inventory in Qingdao and Shanghai ports continues to be less than 30,000 tons. The cargo holders have no shipping pressure, have a positive attitude, push up actively, and focus all the way up.
During the New Year’s Day holiday, the market atmosphere was relatively quiet, and most operators withdrew from the market to wait and see, waiting for the market to become clear after the festival.
Changes in main factors affecting price fluctuations
Cost Side
Firstly, based on the analysis of the price trend of main raw materials for pentane, hexane and heptane production, the price of naphtha rose before the new year’s Day holiday. Considering the decrease of imported cargoes from January to February, the new n-Heptane unit is put into operation, and coincides with the extension of the unloading period of n-Heptane import ships on the shore, n-Heptane is expected to be transferred to the warehouse removal stage; However, it should also be noted that after the new n-Heptane production unit is put into operation, the negative pressure of non integrated n-Heptane caused by intensified industry competition will directly pull down the price of n-Heptane. Therefore, it is expected that in the first ten days of January, n-Heptane will mainly fluctuate at a low level, focusing on the shipping situation in Shanghai and Qingdao and the production process of downstream n-Heptane.
Secondly, considering the average contract price, the starting point of the average price of Pentane and Hexane in January is high, and there is little room for contract households to make profit and ship goods, so it needs to be treated with caution.
Supply Side
From the perspective of domestic supply, it is reported that the major pentane, hexane and heptane manufacturers planned to store, shut down and overhaul their units in January, and the contract has corresponding reduction expectations. In addition, considering the immediate demand or stock mood in the first ten days, it is expected that there will be little pressure on domestic goods supply in the first ten days.
