Hexanes

There was no change in prices of n-Pentane, Isopentane, Blowing Agent, n-Hexane, n-Heptane and n-Octane on Monday, January 17, 2022
Energy Prices
INDEX PRICE % TIME(GMT)
WTI Crude $84.12 +0.36 5:23 PM
Brent Crude $86.33 +0.31 5:22 PM
Natural Gas $4.27 +0.23 5:24 PM
17 January 2022 5:36 PM GMT
The tight supply situation is still superimposed, the demand outlook is good, the decline of the US dollar has brought positive support, and the international oil price has risen to the highest point in two and a half months. NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract 83.82, up $1.70 / barrel or 2.07%; Ice oil distribution futures 03 contract 86.06 rose $1.59/barrel, or 1.88%.
100.00 Chinese Yuan Renminbi =15.751888 US Dollars
1 CNY = 0.157519 USD
1 USD = 6.34845 CNY
We use midmarket rates
Macroscopic
◎ the US federal government debt has exceeded US $29.8 trillion, approaching the US $30 trillion mark.
◎ retail sales in the United States fell by 1.9% month on month in December last year, which was far lower than the month on month flat expected by economists, and reached the largest decline in 10 months, indicating that at the time of the surge of new crown infection, the fastest inflation in decades is having a greater impact on consumers.
◎ the US manufacturing output value fell unexpectedly by 0.3% in December. Economists expected it to increase by 0.3% before that, and the data of the previous month was revised to increase by 0.6%. The total industrial output value, including the output value of mining and public utilities, decreased by 0.1%.
◎ the U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 68.8 in January from 70.6 in December last year, the second lowest in a decade, lower than the median expected by economists surveyed.
◎ Germany’s GDP growth of 2.7% in 2021 is in line with expectations, but still lower than the level before the crisis. It is estimated that the German economy will shrink by 0.5% to 1% in the fourth quarter of 2021, which may encounter the second economic recession since the outbreak of the epidemic.
In November 2021, the GDP grew by 0.9% in the UK, the first time the economy exceeded the pre COVID-19 level, which was 0.7% higher than that in February 2020. In November last year, the output of service industry, production sector and construction industry in the UK increased month on month.
◎ the Bank of Korea announced an interest rate increase of 25 basis points to 1.25%, which also made South Korea the first major Asian economy to raise interest rates this year.
◎ on January 14, the central bank launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan. On that day, 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired. Therefore, the maturity was fully hedged. This week, the central bank invested a net 10 billion yuan in the open market.
◆ Industry News
◎ domestic refined oil will rise for the first time in the year
At 24:00 on January 17, 2022 (i.e. 0:00 next Tuesday), the window of refined oil price adjustment will open again. At that time (on January 17), the theoretical increase corresponding to the price adjustment of domestic refined oil is expected to be about 330 yuan / ton, which will usher in an increase.
◎ review the domestic white oil market around the price line
In 2021, the domestic white oil market rose all the way. After rising to the highest point in the year in the fourth quarter, there was a correction, and it showed a steady upward trend in the rest of the year. Taking 5# white oil as an example, the market price at the beginning of the year was 4137.5 yuan / ton, the highest during the year was 8250 yuan / ton, an increase of 99.39%; At the end of the year, the market price was 7050 yuan / ton, an increase of 70.39% over the beginning of the year and – 14.55% over the highest point of the year.
◎ stable supply of paraffin wax, mainly limited resources
The paraffin wax market continues the stable trend, the upstream is still limited supply, and the downstream just needs to be purchased. Some traders and terminals just need to prepare goods before the festival. It is expected that the shutdown of logistics will be partially affected next week, and the price of short-term paraffin will remain stable.
◎ the promotion of polyester filament is not expected
There is a game between cost and supply and demand. The polyester filament market is running rigidly. Most downstream users at the trader level believe that there are still sales promotion expectations in the market recently. Considering the cost pressure, the discount range is expected to be limited, while the polyester filament production enterprises believe that the sales promotion expectations are small, which depends on the price trend of raw materials.
◎ near the end of the year, PTA takes advantage of the situation
PTA supply is expected to increase. Although the Spring Festival holiday is coming, the polyester load on the demand side may decline limited, and the liquidity of the spot market is still tightening, which supports the price to a certain extent. The market is optimistic about the recovery of textile demand, superimposing the strength of the cost side; Therefore, it is expected that the short-term PTA market will continue to adjust at a high level. However, the obvious repair of the processing range and the weakening of supply and demand in the future may inhibit the increase.
◎ the contradiction between supply and demand is eased, and the short-term pressure of ethylene glycol is weakened
Zhenhai Petrochemical started its test run this week and is about to achieve mass production. As the Spring Festival approaches, seasonal load reduction is inevitable on the demand side. However, the load of ethylene glycol unit was temporarily reduced, the polyester load continued to be repaired, the contradiction between supply and demand was alleviated, and the adjustment pressure of ethylene glycol was weakened due to the strong performance of international crude oil.
◎ weak demand and weak price rise of household paper
At present, the household paper market is basically stable. As of January 14, the mainstream price of Hebei wood pulp axis market was 6,400-6,500 yuan / ton, that of Shandong wood pulp axis market was 6,400-6,500 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan bamboo pulp axis market was 6,800-6,900 yuan / ton, and that of Guangxi sugarcane pulp axis market was 5,900-6,000 yuan / ton. Some small and medium-sized paper enterprises in the North began to shut down for holidays. After proper preparation in the early stage, the downstream processing plants give priority to digesting their own inventory, and the terminal follow-up is slow. Affected by the support of raw materials, the living base paper enterprises have high enthusiasm to push up. However, affected by the weak overall demand, the implementation of price increase remains to be observed. Most paper enterprises mainly go to the warehouse to recover funds.
◎ concentrated production capacity and rapid development of ethylene industry
At present, China’s total ethylene production capacity has reached 44.59 million tons / year, up 6.19% year-on-year. Although the new production enterprise is a refining and chemical integration project, whether the production time of its supporting downstream units matches the output time of raw materials is still an important factor affecting the domestic ethylene market price.
◎ price summary of East China pure benzene in 2021
Pure benzene rose strongly in 2021. In addition to repairing the low price caused by health events in 2020, the centralized production of new downstream demand also boosted the price rise. During the year, the market activity continued to increase compared with 2020, and the price fluctuated frequently and greatly. In 2021, the average annual price of pure benzene in East China was 6,783 yuan / ton, an increase of 2,787 yuan / ton or 67.7% compared with 3,996 yuan / ton in 2020. The annual lowest price is 4,280 yuan / ton, which appeared in January, and the highest price is 8,900 yuan / ton, which appeared in September.
◎ isopropanol: the rising trend is obvious. Can accidents occur?
For reference to major enterprises, the factory did not plan to stop for maintenance in February. The monthly output was higher than 32,000 tons, the domestic demand was less than 20,000 tons, and the export was less than 10,000 tons. In addition to a certain amount of import, the surplus was not small. If there is no substantive support, it is difficult to be positive. Therefore, it mainly depends on whether the factory can stop and reduce production in February.
◎ brief analysis of butanone market operating rate and production forecast in January
In 2021, the total output of butanone in China will be 489,500 tons, and the average operating rate will be around 68%. In December, the output of butanone was 48,400 tons. Due to the restart of Hunan Ruiyuan unit, the operating rate rebounded in a narrow range. At the end of the month, Ningbo Jinfa plant was shut down. Due to the small loss, the impact on the output of the current month was limited.
◎ the output of domestic PVC production enterprises will resume in 2021
Under the long-term impact of global environmental protection and domestic double carbon policy, the transformation and upgrading of the coal industry is still bound to have a great impact on the coal industry. The sudden tightening of the double carbon policy in 2021 and the sharp tightening and tension of coal supply and price caused by the global epidemic will affect the downstream industrial derivatives centered on coal; The energy cost will increase significantly. In the long term, the high cost may become the norm. The low-cost advantage of coal based industry will counter attack and become a medium and high-cost variety of various energy sources. Looking at PVC, the cost of calcium carbide production enterprises in 2022 is high, and the cost of supporting enterprises in their own upstream industries has advantages, and the non supporting enterprises will fall into the edge of loss or long-term loss, It will continue to restrain the space for output increase of calcium carbide production enterprises.
◆ industry trends
◎ the scale of China’s foreign trade exceeded the $6 trillion mark for the first time. According to customs statistics, the total import and export value of China’s goods trade in 2021 was 39.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.4% over 2020; Among them, the export was 21.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.2%; Imports reached 17.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.5%.
◎ National Bureau of Statistics: in December 2021, the sales price of commercial housing showed a downward trend month on month, and the year-on-year increase decreased. The sales price of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in first tier cities decreased by one month, and that in second and third tier cities decreased.
◎ State Post Office: in 2021, the business volume of national express service enterprises totaled 108.3 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%; Business income totaled 1,033.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%.
◎ China Academy of information and communications announced that in 2021, China’s 5g mobile phone shipments reached 266 million, a year-on-year increase of 63.5%, accounting for 75.9% of mobile phone shipments in the same period, far higher than the global average of 40.7%.