Today, the price of blowing agents for forming foams rose again. The prices of two pentane blowing agents increased by 1.54% and 1.59% respectively
Polyurethane raw material prices rose across the board, and expanding production capacity became the main theme of the industry at the beginning of the new year
In 2021, the refrigerator industry experienced the development process of “restraining first and then increasing”. At the beginning of, traffic disruption and logistics disruption hindered the production of refrigerator enterprises. With the continuous recovery of refrigerator production capacity, especially after entering the third quarter, the overseas epidemic intensified, which once led to a sharp increase in refrigerator export orders. The release of downstream demand has strained the supply of #polyurethane raw materials (including foam blowing agent, black and white materials) in the upstream of the refrigerator, followed by a sharp rise in prices. In order to meet the demand of the refrigerator factory, in 2021, the polyurethane raw material factory will increase the production capacity on the one hand, and expand the application of new technologies on the other hand to help the whole machine factory reduce the production cost.
Foaming agent: HFO replaces HFC acceleration
With the increasing requirements of the refrigerator industry for environmental protection and energy-saving technical indicators, the foaming system of China’s refrigerator industry has changed from cyclopentane + polyether binary blend foaming system to cyclopentane + HFC-245fa + polyether ternary blend foaming system. The reason why “electrical appliances” reporter learned that compared with the traditional cyclopentane foaming technology, HFC-245fa+ cyclopentane blending foaming technology can not only effectively reduce the thermal conductivity, improve the energy efficiency of the refrigerator, but also reduce the foam density, which helps to reduce the cost of polyurethane foam.
It can be seen that HFC-245fa is widely used in refrigerator industry as foaming agent. In 2021, the outbreak of COVID-19 pneumonia caused a sharp increase in the refrigerator exports in the second half of the year. No matter the whole plant or the polyurethane raw materials factory transferred production to China, the demand of HFC-245fa showed a rapid growth trend.
Inventory and Prospect of Solvent Market in 2022
Crude Oil
The quality of epidemic control is the key factor determining the rise and fall of crude oil. There will be no high price of crude oil until the epidemic in the world is effectively controlled. Now the world economy is recovering slowly. In the future, COVID-19 may be as normal as a cold. The epidemic has already brought the world economy to the cards in advance, and the recession is inevitable. China can not be left alone. At this stage, the overall situation of China’s market is that high-end products rely heavily on imports, and the low level of products has a serious surplus.
In 2021, the primary processing capacity of crude oil will exceed 900 million tons / year, resulting in serious overcapacity. In 2021, China’s self-produced crude oil was about 195 million tons, and its domestic crude oil processing capacity was 674.4 million tons. In 2021, China’s total imported crude oil was 542 million tons, reaching a new high. The dependence on foreign crude oil reached more than 72%, and the form of energy security is still very severe.
Naphtha
Naphtha is an important raw material for ethylene, reforming, blending gasoline and solvent oil. In 2020, the national naphtha output will be 38.97 million tons, the demand will be 45.99 million tons, and the import volume will be 7.02 million tons. In 2021, the national naphtha output is about 42.32 million tons. In the future, the naphtha supply gap will gradually increase and the contradiction between supply and demand will further intensify.
Ethylene is one of the important standards to measure a country’s petrochemical development level. It is the core part of petrochemical industry and plays an important role in the national economy. Ethylene is known as the mother of chemical industry. Its products account for more than 75% of petrochemical products, and the downstream is polyethylene, ethylene glycol, ethylene oxide, styrene, PVC and so on.
China is the second largest producer and consumer of ethylene after the United States. However, with the continuous improvement of consumption, it is still in short supply. The main domestic production areas are the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Northeast China, and the main sources of imports are South Korea, Japan and the United States.
In 2020, China’s ethylene output will be 25.85 million tons and its consumption will be 51.55 million tons. In 2021, China’s ethylene output will be 21.6 million tons. In recent years, the average annual import volume is about 18 million tons. It is estimated that by 2025, the domestic ethylene production capacity will be about 58.8 million tons, the output will be about 46.8 million tons and the consumption will be 67 million tons. The whole “14th five year plan” period is a period of vigorous development of ethylene in China. Therefore, there will be strong demand for naphtha in the next 5-8 years.
Export of refined oil: the export volume of refined oil will be 66.85 million tons in 2020 and 61.83 million tons in 2021. This year, the state will continue to open the export of refined oil by private enterprises. Although the export volume has decreased compared with previous years, the export of refined oil is still a strong fulcrum to boost the demand for naphtha.
Common solvent oil
The general solvent oil market continues to shrink this year, with a sense of decline. Affected by the national safety and environmental protection policy, the end users of general solvent oil are stopping work and moving. Especially in the Yangtze River Delta, a large number of end customers require to be moved out. From vigorously recruiting and supporting more than ten years ago to today’s deportation, they have become proud of the national solvent oil distribution center for more than ten years, This is no longer brilliant.
#6 Solvent Oil
Due to the adjustment of industrial structure, the demand of No. 6 solvent oil has shown a downward trend in recent years. It is expected that the market of No. 6 solvent oil will not change much this year. Due to the index requirements of No. 6 solvent oil, its yield in production is relatively low. Therefore, No. 6 solvent oil can still maintain a certain space in profit. Because No. 6 solvent oil has an irreplaceable role in adhesives for the time being, it will be barely maintained in the next few years.
No. 120 Solvent Oil
This year, No. 120 solvent oil still shows a downward trend. Due to the large proportion in the processing and production process, the market supply exceeds demand, and most of the time, the price of No. 120 solvent oil is equal to that of naphtha. Therefore, in the future, 120 solvent oil may enter the chemical industry less and less, and most of it will enter the field of oil transfer and reforming.
No. 200
This year, the market development of No. 200 solvent oil fluctuated, and the field of chemical oil products continued to decline. However, it is not the terminal paint industry that really determines the market price and demand of No. 200 solvent oil, but the diesel industry. Whether national standard or non-standard, the trend of No. 200 market has been guided by diesel demand in recent years. In previous years, a large amount of diesel demand has ensured the No. 200 market and the normal operation of solvent oil enterprises.
However, after the Spring Festival this year, the No. 200 market has been in a downturn. For the first time in four years, the price is lower than No. 120. The reason is that the diesel market has been bad. The main reasons for the bad diesel market are as follows: 1 After the epidemic, the market did not fully recover and the transportation industry was depressed. 2. There are still a large number of goods stored during the Spring Festival. 3. There is heavy rain in the south, and the progress of the project is slow.
On the whole, although the glory of processing ordinary solvent oil with naphtha is long gone, there is still a great demand in the market. However, the profit point is constantly declining, and many ordinary solvent oil production enterprises are just to ensure the commencement. For the clef solvent oil market, we don’t make money, we only make production.
Pentane
For pentane, the national market demand is about 300,000 tons / year. Most of them enter the oil transfer field in the middle of the period, and the other part enters the chemical industry, mainly as pentane foaming agent. The actual annual demand for pentane foaming agent is about 150,000 tons. In the future, the market of pentane foaming agent may be further expanded.
Pentane, as a foaming agent, mainly foams polystyrene and polyurethane. Pentane has a low density of about 0.62 and is volatile. As a foaming agent, it uses its volatile characteristics to leave small holes in polystyrene or polyurethane.
Pentane and isopentane are used to make polystyrene foaming agent in a proportion of pentane blowing agent. The finished product is polystyrene foam EPS, and pentane to EPS foaming is already a very mature technology. Polystyrene foam is widely used in building engineering, thermal insulation materials, roadbed filling, and packaging industry.
Polyurethane foam is mainly used in building, thermal insulation materials, such as heating and insulation pipes, fridge insulation, building external wall insulation and so on. The main application of polyurethane foaming is Cyclopentane.
At present, the dosage of polystyrene foam is greater than that of polyurethane foam. In addition, n-pentane and isopentane can also be applied to the #polyethylene industry.
The main application of polyurethane foaming is Cyclopentane.
At present, the dosage of polystyrene foam is greater than that of polyurethane foam. In addition, n-pentane and isopentane can also be applied to the #polyethylene industry.
n-Hexane
This year, the whole market demand for n-hexane will rise slowly, whether coal based or petroleum based. Especially in the second half of the year, the demand of vegetable oil extraction industry, polyolefin industry and rubber synthesis industry will increase. This year, 1-2 n-hexane manufacturers will enter the industry. In the future, the profit of n-hexane will decrease significantly. N-hexane is becoming a rotten Street product from high-end fine chemicals.
n-Hexane, 60%
The demand for 60% n-hexane has been relatively stable in recent years.
The requirements are as follows:
1、 Continuous merger and integration of large domestic oil enterprises, such as COFCO.
2、 The continuous promotion of international grain and oil enterprises to build factories in China, such as YIHAI KERRY, etc.
3、 The number of imported soybeans increased steadily. In January 2021, China imported 102 million tons of soybeans, a record high, and will increase this year.
4、 Increasing production of domestic soybean. In 2021, there will be 19.6 million tons of domestic soybeans. According to the fact that about 30% of domestic soybeans are used for edible oil production, plus some imported Russian soybeans, it is estimated that nearly 7 million tons of domestic soybeans will enter the vegetable oil extraction industry.
5、 The comprehensive recovery of aquaculture industry and strong feed demand also increase the operating rate of oil enterprises.
Many favorable factors, such as the above, will increase the market demand for 60% n-hexane. However, it is also because major demand enterprises implement the low-cost joint bidding procurement scheme, forcing suppliers to keep the price to the lowest, or even lose money, which will greatly reduce the profit of 60% n-hexane.
It can be said that n-hexane has become a low profit product, and the main culprit of damaging the whole n-hexane industry is the demand enterprises of major domestic bidding.
n-Hexane, 80%
80% n-hexane is mainly used in polyolefin, rubber synthesis industry, and some in vegetable oil leaching industry.
Polyolefin
Just take polyethylene as an example. There has always been a large gap in domestic high-end products such as polyethylene, most of which are heavily dependent on imports, and high-end polyolefins will even be imported on a large scale in the next few years.
The industrial chain of polyethylene is crude oil naphtha ethylene polyethylene plastics.
China is the country with the largest consumption of polyethylene. Polyethylene consumption is mainly concentrated in East China, North China and South China. Although domestic polyethylene production enterprises are constantly launched, they still can not meet the market demand, especially the scarcity of high-end polyethylene. Domestic high-end polyethylene production capacity is insufficient to meet the growth of high-speed consumption. They can only rely on imports, mainly from Saudi Arabia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, South Korea, United States, Singapore, Qatar, etc.
In 2020, the domestic polyethylene consumption will be 34 million tons, the output will be 18 million tons and the import volume will be 11.5 million tons. In 2021, the domestic polyethylene output was about 20.3 million tons, the import volume reached 18.6 million tons, and the external dependence exceeded 48%. Last year, the global production capacity was about 130 million tons, and the new production capacity was 9.4 million tons. It is expected that China’s polyethylene import volume will slow down after 2023. By then, the global polyethylene production capacity will reach 150 million tons / year
From 2020 to now, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Dalian Hengli, Panjin Bora, Sinochem, Quanzhou, Yantai Wanhua, Heilongjiang haiguolong oil, Yanchang Yuneng phase II, Lianyungang satellite petrochemical and other units with a total of nearly 7 million tons have been put into operation, but they still can not meet the domestic demand.
The production of HDPE is mainly slurry polymerization process, and the slurry stirred tank process mainly includes German Hostalen slurry process and Japanese Mitsui CX process.
Both processes use n-hexane.
Synthetic Rubber
Synthetic rubber is mainly used in the production of tires, rubber shoes, etc.
With the adjustment of national policies, butadiene production capacity is released, the source of raw materials is more relaxed, and the profit of cis-polybutadiene rubber begins to increase significantly. Major domestic manufacturers start operation one after another, the operating rate is maintained at about 70%, and the output is also increasing significantly. The output of styrene butadiene rubber and ethylene propylene rubber will be increased.
For example, solution polymerized styrene butadiene rubber is a copolymer formed by random copolymerization of butadiene and styrene with n-hexane as solvent. It is mainly used for rubber pre rubber products such as tires and rubber shoes.
Solution polymerized styrene butadiene rubber is a high-end technical product with high technical barriers. At present, domestic supply is still in short supply. The total global output of solution polymerized styrene butadiene rubber is about 2.58 million tons. The main producing countries are the United States, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Italy, Hungary and other developed countries. Solution polymerized styrene butadiene rubber with a production capacity of more than 100000 tons are European and American enterprises.
For example, EPDM is a terpolymer formed by copolymerization of ethylene, propylene and non conjugated diene monomers. EPDM has superior oxidation resistance, ozone resistance, corrosion resistance, and good processing and application properties. At present, it has been widely used in automobile industry, electronic and electrical, construction and other fields.
EPDM is a solution polymerization process, which is a homogeneous reaction. Usually, ethylene, propylene and the third monomer (dicyclopentadiene) are polymerized with n-hexane as solvent and aluminum salt as catalyst. The temperature and pressure are adjusted to control the degree of reaction. After that, catalyst removal, polymer and solvent separation, monomer recovery, drying, packaging, etc.
In 2020, China’s EPDM output was 217000 tons, the demand was 439000 tons, and the import volume was 230000 tons, accounting for more than 52%. The main importing countries were the United States, South Korea and the European Union.
Vegetable oil leaching
The stable production capacity of low-temperature soybean meal and corn oil provides an effective guarantee for the demand of 80% n-hexane.
After discussing the products related to n-hexane in the above three aspects, it can be seen that the demand for 80% n-hexane will increase in the next few years.
High purity coal based n-Hexane
Since the previous year, coal based n-hexane has been accepted and trusted by most customers. In the past, some defects of coal based n-hexane have been removed with the improvement of raw materials and production process. It has been widely used in polyethylene, synthetic rubber and some vegetable oil leaching industries. Due to the low production cost, good yield and friendly market price of coal based n-hexane, It has become a good choice for end customers.
At present, high-purity n-hexane in the market is produced from coal, and the market response is good. High purity n-hexane is mostly used in the pharmaceutical intermediate industry, and the annual market demand is about 25000-30000 tons. The market demand for high-purity hexane began to decline significantly in the past two years. The main reason is that most manufacturers choose to replace n-hexane with n-heptane, resulting in some oversupply of high-purity hexane. However, with the shortage of 80% n-hexane in the market, some high-purity hexane has entered the polyethylene, rubber synthesis and vegetable oil leaching industries, High purity hexane will maintain a relatively flat supply-demand relationship.
The raw material of coal based n-hexane is normal structure stable light hydrocarbon. Due to the high normal structure content of normal structure stable light hydrocarbon, the content of n-hexane is easy to increase in the production of n-hexane, and the content is more than 95%. Therefore, the market share of coal based n-hexane has gradually increased in recent two years.
It can be said that the domestic n-hexane industry has continued to increase steadily in recent years, mainly due to the vigorous development of coal chemical industry in recent years, more and more coal chemical enterprises have entered the n-hexane industry, driving the continuous and vigorous development of domestic n-hexane industry.
With the continuous launch of domestic coal chemical Fischer Tropsch synthesis projects, the development of coal to n-hexane is getting better and better, and the production capacity and output value of coal based n-hexane are rising.
However, at present, the homogenization of domestic n-hexane products is serious, the product competition is fierce, and the price fight is everywhere. However, the imported high-quality and high-purity n-hexane still has a certain market. Therefore, improving the product quality of n-hexane is our top priority.
Heptane
n-Heptane is mainly used as pharmaceutical intermediates, phase change materials, organic synthesis and so on.
Firstly, the demand for n-heptane has maintained an upward trend in the past two years, overwhelming n-hexane as the mainstream in the application of some terminal pharmaceutical APIs.
Secondly, it is to press imported n-heptane and firmly occupy the domestic market.
Third, the increasing export volume makes n-heptane one of the few export-oriented fine chemical products in the solvent oil industry.
In the future, the market demand for n-heptane will further increase.
Today’s achievements in the n-heptane market should be thanks to the vigorous development of China’s coal chemical industry.
Although the market of n-heptane has developed well, it is only a small variety in the solvent oil industry, and many people do not know its existence.
D series Solvent Oil
D series solvent oil, also known as light white oil. D series solvent oil has become a rotten variety in the past two years. The price fight is fierce. It was hit by isoalkanes last year. Several old D series manufacturers in the industry are also struggling, and it is more difficult for new enterprises.
In the D series, the varieties with low flash point have no profit, and the high flash point can be barely maintained. The D series of many enterprises are forced to enter the oil transfer field. This situation is the same as that of ordinary solvent oil. How can I cut it out and transfer it back to me.
With the continuous release of aviation coal output of Dalian Hengli and Zhejiang Petrochemical, the increase of liquid wax of coal chemical industry, and more and more D-series solvent oil raw materials, several enterprises will start construction this year. At that time, the price competition will be more intense. Overall, this year, the D-series market demand will not change significantly, the sales will be more difficult, and the overall profit will decline significantly. It can be said that the D-series market is facing a reshuffle.
D series has been in the market for more than ten years, with slow development. Up to now, it is faced with being replaced, which is worth pondering.
n-Alkane
N-alkanes are mainly used for linear alkylbenzene, dibasic acid, chlorinated paraffin, aluminum products binding, nylon, etc. at present, several varieties with slightly better demand from n-octane to n-tetradecane in the market are n-decane, n-dodecane and n-tetradecane. Due to the single terminal demand, the demand has not been very large. A few years ago, n-alkanes were relatively low-key in the market. In recent years, due to the emergence of coal to liquid wax, n-alkanes manufacturers have increased.
At present, the profit point of n-alkane single product is OK, but the sales volume is limited. In addition, there are too many accessory products and almost no profit. Therefore, manufacturers are on the edge of chicken ribs for n-alkanes.
This year, n-alkanes will still develop slowly. It is suggested that new demand channels need to be developed to obtain more recognition from the terminal. Personally, in the future, n-alkanes will continue to develop high-carbon products, such as n-Pentadecane, n-hexadecane, n-Heptadecane, n-octadecane, etc. these varieties are available in developed countries and have a promising future, This is also a supplementary point and profit growth point of the solvent oil industry.
Isoalkanes
Isoalkanes are mainly used in aerosol, dry cleaning, cosmetics, environmental protection coatings, metal processing lubrication, etc. isoalkanes are high-end products of solvent oil and can also be understood as the ultimate products of solvent oil. IP series is mainly used in China, and isododecane and isocetane are mainly imported.
In 2021, the import volume of isoalkanes is about 40000 tons, while the sales volume of domestic isoalkanes greatly exceeds that of imports, and the annual market sales exceed 80000 tons.
This year, the isomeric alkane market will still increase steadily, will be trusted and recognized by more end customers, and the market will develop healthily.
In the future, the isomeric alkane market will expand year by year. However, with the reduction of technical threshold and cost, more enterprises will participate, and the price war will inevitably rise again.
In the next five years, the consumption of domestic isoalkanes will increase explosively. It is conservatively expected that the market of isoalkanes will reach 250000-300000 tons per year.
Compared with Japan’s 100 million people in Asia, the annual demand for isoalkanes is about 50000 tons, while that of South Korea’s 50 million people is about 35000 tons. The market prospect of isomeric alkanes in China must be very broad. If the category increases again, the market demand will increase significantly.
It is expected that in the future, isoalkanes will become the leading products in the solvent oil industry and reshape the glory of the solvent oil industry. Isoalkanes may be the last overlord of solvent oil products.
